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Solar Power is our "Moon" Shot
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I recently attended Solar Power 2007, the largest solar energy event ever held in the United States. Five years ago, 800 people came, and this year, there were over 9,000 at the Long Beach Convention Center which was picked because they have a large solar installation. The enormous increase in the number of attendees indicates the amount of potential that companies and investors see in solar. I am one of those people.
The first keynote speaker was Ray Lane, one of the managing partners of Kleiner Perkins, one of the premier venture capital firms in the world, and the second was Ted Turner, the founder of CNN and a winner of the America’s Cup.
Lane’s message was “Global warming. It’s game over by 2050 if we don’t deal with them.” He contended that the problems will be so big by then that they will be irreversible. Quoting one of his partners Gene Kleiner, Lane said, “There is a time when panic is the appropriate response.” Kleiner Perkins has allocated several hundred million dollars to solar power investments, and Lane noted that there is no shortage of energy because all you have to do is look up and see the sun.
The Holy Grail of course is making more efficient solar cells that can produce power at prices equal to the grid, and all of a sudden solar becomes a real business. Kleiner Perkins’ plan is to invest in companies that make solar cells and those that store the electricity. Lane told the audience that 100 square miles of land covered with mirrors called concentrators could produce 100% of the power needed in the US. That certainly seems reasonable.
In conclusion, Lane said, “The bottom line is solar power is our generation’s moon shot,” making an analogy to President Kennedy’s call to action more than 40 years ago. That time our nation succeeded. I agree with Lane that solar power can be our moon shot and that it represents the largest economic opportunity of the 21st century.
Next I heard Ted Turner, and he’s an extraordinary fellow. He said solar power is a “no brainer” and is the greatest business opportunity ever in the history of mankind. Turner concluded with three compelling observations.
1. Never build another coal burning plant
2. The US doesn’t have any enemies except the ones it makes.
3. You can’t expect someone who can’t run a baseball team to run a country.
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Not all bad...not all good
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I grant that there have been abuses, that lenders were predatory, that people got loans who shouldn’t have and that applications were fraudulent – one loan was actually funded to a Mr. “M. Mouse.” This was a perfect storm...you had greedy lenders, but you also had over ambition and overconfidence on the part of the borrowers.
So let’s see what really happened and…is it all bad?
And for that we once again call upon our favorite economist, James Surowiecki, who makes the following observation: after running the numbers, he finds that 90% of borrowers are making their payments on time and living in the houses they bought. Only 10% are in default so one can argue that the rise in homeownership has been well served by the sub prime loan market. Surowiekci argues that there have been vastly more winners than losers.
He is not in favor of government regulation because he says that “while some borrowers will continue to make bad bets, it may be better than their never having had the chance to make any bet at all...”
Reminds me of the most famous poem of Alfred Lord Tennyson -- “tis better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all.”
Next, let’s revisit one of BABY’s previous rants -- Second Life -- which, as you know, is the website that allows you to live a virtual life in a virtual world using real American dollars. My listeners know well that I think this is insane...it is hard enough to live well in this world, running to a virtual world is a total escape.
And now the FBI has decided to join the fracas......they are investigating whether the casinos in Second Life are legal.
You gotta love this.....J. Edgar Hoover’s hard-boiled, gun-toting, tough guys -- the guys who put Al Capone and John Dillinger out of business -- are now investigating a virtual casino in a virtual world that uses real money to pay off virtual bets. The G-men have traded in their glocks for a laptop and a mouse.
I’m thinking J. Edgar would be rolling over in his panty hose.
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